Effects of interactions between anthropogenic stressors and recurring perturbations on ecosystem resilience and collapse

Insights into declines in ecosystem resilience and their causes and effects can inform preemptive action to avoid ecosystem collapse and loss of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Empirical studies of ecosystem collapse are rare and hampered by ecosystem complexity, nonlinear and lagged responses, and interactions across scales. We investigated how an anthropogenic stressor could diminish ecosystem resilience to a recurring perturbation by altering a critical ecosystem driver. We studied groundwater-dependent, peat-accumulating, fire-prone wetlands known as upland swamps in southeastern Australia. We hypothesized that underground mining (stressor) reduces resilience of these wetlands to landscape fires (perturbation) by diminishing groundwater, a key ecosystem driver. We monitored soil moisture as an indicator of ecosystem resilience during and after underground mining. After landscape fire, we compared responses of multiple state variables representing ecosystem structure, composition, and function in swamps within the mining footprint with unmined reference swamps. Soil moisture declined without recovery in swamps with mine subsidence (i.e., undermined), but was maintained in reference swamps over 8 years (effect size 1.8). Relative to burned reference swamps, burned undermined swamps showed greater loss of peat via substrate combustion; reduced cover, height, and biomass of regenerating vegetation; reduced postfire plant species richness and abundance; altered plant species composition; increased mortality rates of woody plants; reduced postfire seedling recruitment; and extirpation of a hydrophilic animal. Undermined swamps therefore showed strong symptoms of postfire ecosystem collapse, whereas reference swamps regenerated vigorously. We found that an anthropogenic stressor diminished the resilience of an ecosystem to recurring perturbations, predisposing it to collapse. Avoidance of ecosystem collapse hinges on early diagnosis of mechanisms and preventative risk reduction. It may be possible to delay or ameliorate symptoms of collapse or to restore resilience, but the latter appears unlikely in our study system due to fundamental alteration of a critical ecosystem driver. Efectos de las interacciones entre los estresantes antropogénicos y las perturbaciones recurrentes sobre la resiliencia y el colapso de los ecosistemas     

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

DIFFERENCES IN WARM-SEASON,RAINSTORM-GENERATED STORMFLOWS FOR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS URBANIZED BASINS1

ABSTRACT: Precipitation, streamflow, and population data were analyzed over the 1941–1990 period to determine whether changes in stormflows and net (post. minus pre-rainstorm) stormflows, associated with warm-season large rainstorms, were similar for two urbanized northeastern Illinois basins. Warm season large rainstorms were defined as April through October rainfall events in which ? 5.1 cm occurred in a 48-hour period over the basin. To minimize differences associated with varying large rainstorm amounts over time, the net sthrmflow for each event was divided by the large rainstorm amount. This ratio, Ui, indicated that the two urbanized basins experienced significant, yet different, increases (102 percent and 49 percent) in flow amount per centimeter of rainfall from 1941–1965 to 1966–1990. Results of a regression analysis between Ui and population showed that the increase in U_i per 100,000 increase in population ranged from 0.59 to 0.67 m³s^-1 per cm of rainfall for the two basins. These results demonstrate the varying degree of change that urban planners can expect in stormflows associated with large warm season rainstorms for areas undergoing urbanization.     

Comparison of mercury and methylmercury in northern pike and Arctic grayling from western Alaska rivers

In western Alaska, mercury (Hg) could be a potential health risk to people whose diet is primarily fish-based. In 2000, total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) were examined in northern pike (Esox lucius) and Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) from two watersheds in western Alaska, the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers. Whitefish (Coregonus sp.) were also examined from the Kuskokwim River. Pike from the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers had mean concentrations of THg in muscle of 1.506 and 0.628 mg/kg wet wt, respectively. The mean concentrations of THg in grayling muscle from these rivers were 0.264 and 0.078 mg/kg, respectfully. Whitefish had a mean THg concentration in muscle of 0.032 mg/kg. MeHg, in pike and grayling constituted nearly 100% of the THg concentrations; the proportion was less in whitefish. A significant positive correlation between Hg levels and fish length was also found. Generally, there were no changes in Hg concentrations in pike or grayling over the last several years. Only pike from theYukon River had THg concentrations that exceeded the USFDA action level for human consumption of edible fish (1 mg/kg). Human hazard index for pike was > or = 1 for both adults and children, indicating a potential for toxic concern, especially among children. Further studies are needed to determine the environmental and human health impacts associated with these Hg concentrations in western Alaska, especially in the context of potentially increased consumption of resident fishes when anadromous salmon catches are reduced.     

A laboratory technique for investigation of diffusion and transformation of volatile organic compounds in low permeability media

A laboratory diffusion cell technique that permits spatial and temporal estimates of porewater concentrations over short intervals suitable for estimation of effective diffusion coefficients (De) and degradation rate constants (k) of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in saturated low permeability media is presented. The diffusion cell is a sealed cylinder containing vapour reservoirs for sampling, including a vapour reservoir source and an array of vapour-filled "mini-boreholes", which are maintained water- and sediment-free by slightly negative porewater pressures. The vapour reservoirs were sampled by Solid Phase Micro-Extraction (SPME), resulting in minimal disturbance to the experimental system. Porewater concentrations are estimated from the measured vapour concentrations. Experiments were conducted using a non-reactive medium and five VOCs with a range in partitioning properties. Calibration experiments showed that equilibrium partition coefficients could be used for calculating concentrations in the vapour reservoir source from concentrations in the SPME coating after a 1-min microextraction and that the reservoir concentration was insignificantly affected by sampling. However, equilibrium was not reached during the one-min extraction of the boreholes; the microextraction reduced the borehole vapour concentrations, leading to diffusion of VOCs from porewater into the vapour-filled borehole. Thus, empirical partitioning coefficients were required for the determination of porewater VOC concentrations. The experimental data and numerical modelling indicate masses extracted by SPME extraction are relatively small, with minimal perturbation on processes studied in diffusion experiments. This technique shows promise for laboratory investigation of diffusion and transformation processes in low permeability media.     

Reducing Nitrogen Export from the Corn Belt to the Gulf of Mexico: Agricultural Strategies for Remediating Hypoxia

SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed models developed for the Upper Midwest were used to help evaluate the nitrogen‐load reductions likely to be achieved by a variety of agricultural conservation practices in the Upper Mississippi‐Ohio River Basin (UMORB) and to compare these reductions to the 45% nitrogen‐load reduction proposed to remediate hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Our results indicate that nitrogen‐management practices (improved fertilizer management and cover crops) fall short of achieving this goal, even if adopted on all cropland in the region. The goal of a 45% decrease in loads to the GoM can only be achieved through the coupling of nitrogen‐management practices with innovative nitrogen‐removal practices such as tile‐drainage treatment wetlands, drainage–ditch enhancements, stream‐channel restoration, and floodplain reconnection. Combining nitrogen‐management practices with nitrogen‐removal practices can dramatically reduce nutrient export from agricultural landscapes while minimizing impacts to agricultural production. With this approach, it may be possible to meet the 45% nutrient reduction goal while converting less than 1% of cropland in the UMORB to nitrogen‐removal practices. Conservationists, policy makers, and agricultural producers seeking a workable strategy to reduce nitrogen export from the Corn Belt will need to consider a combination of nitrogen‐management practices at the field scale and diverse nitrogen‐removal practices at the landscape scale.     

A major increase in snake pipefish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Entelurus aequoreus</Emphasis>) in northern European seas since 2003: potential implications for seabird breeding success

Since the early 2000s routine fish surveys have recorded increasing numbers of snake pipefish, Entelurus aequoreus, in the northeast Atlantic. Fishermen and divers have also commented on this increase and pipefish have started to appear in the diet of seabirds and other marine predators. This paper collates information from these diverse sources and assesses the current status of snake pipefish. We found compelling evidence of a dramatic increase in the abundance of snake pipefish starting around 2003 and continuing up to the present (2006) and a range expansion northwards to Spitzbergen and the Barents Sea. Since 2004 snake pipefish have been increasingly recorded in the diet of many species of seabird breeding in colonies around the coast of the UK, and in Norway, Iceland and the Faeroe Islands. Information on the nutrient value of snake pipefish is currently lacking but their rigid, bony structure makes them difficult for young seabirds to swallow and there are numerous records of chicks choking to death. Thus, in the case of avian predators during the breeding season, it appears unlikely that increased abundance of snake pipefish will provide a useful alternative prey. The reason for the rapid and dramatic increase in numbers of snake pipefish is currently unclear but such events are characteristic of marine ecosystems and will almost certainly have an effect on food web dynamics.     

An unintended experiment in fisheries science: a marine area protected by war results in Mexican waves in fish numbers-at-age

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are attaining increasing importance in the management of marine ecosystems. They are effective for conservation in tropical and subtropical areas (mainly coral and rocky reefs), but it is debated whether they are useful in the management of migratory fish stocks in open temperate regions. World War II created a large marine area within which commercial fishing was prevented for 6 years. Here we analyse scientific trawl data for three important North Sea gadoids, collected between 1928 and 1958. Using statistical models to summarise the data, we demonstrate the potential of MPAs for expediting the recovery of over-exploited fisheries in open temperate regions. Our age-structured data and population models suggest that wild fish stocks will respond rapidly and positively to reductions in harvesting rates and that the numbers of older fish in a population will react before, and in much greater proportion, than their younger counterparts in a kind of Mexican wave. Our analyses demonstrate both the overall increase in survival due to the lack of harvesting in the War and the form of the age-dependent wave in numbers. We conclude that large closed areas can be very useful in the conservation of migratory species from temperate areas and that older fish benefit fastest and in greater proportion. Importantly, any rise in spawning stock biomass may also not immediately result in better recruitment, which can respond more slowly and hence take longer to contribute to higher future harvestable biomass levels.